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电报群机器人:CPO inventory soars on better production

电报群机器人:CPO inventory soars on better production

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PETALING JAYA: Earnings of plantation companies have likely peaked in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22) as the average crude palm oil (CPO) price of RM4,116 per tonne in July-August is more than one-third lower compared with 2Q22.

CGS-CIMB Research said CPO prices could weaken due to higher Indonesian palm oil exports following the recent extension of the palm oil export levy waiver to Oct 31, as well as due to the current high palm inventories.

“We believe CPO prices could trade in the RM3,500-RM4,500 range in September 2022.

“However, the downside will be capped by the current CPO wide pricing discount of US$531 (RM2,393) per tonne against soybean oil as at Sept 8, 2022,” said the research firm in a note to clients.

It said the sharp drop in the average CPO price in July-August to RM4,166 per tonne (2Q22: RM6,552), coupled with higher operating costs due to the RM1,500-per-month minimum wage and rising fertiliser costs, are likely to weaken 3Q22 earnings of upstream plantation companies, which sell CPO on spot basis.

“However, the downside could be capped by the industry’s attractive dividend yields of 4% to 5% and the sector’s undemanding price-to-earnings ratio,” said CGS-CIMB Research.

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It projects palm oil stocks to rise 9.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 2.29 million tonnes by end-September 2022 and could likely peak in October or November as rising output beats the higher exports.

It said the rise in palm oil stocks is negative for CPO price in the short term as it suggests ample palm oil supply in producing countries.

As at end-August, local palm oil stocks, which rose 18.2% m-o-m to 2.09 million tonnes, had come in higher than analysts’ expectations.

Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research said the end-August local palm oil inventory had hit a 33-month high on better production, as trees were at peak season and the recent small intake of foreign workers has led to better crop recovery.

According to the research firm, the recent CPO price weakness could have factored in the rising palm oil inventory.

However, it does not expect CPO prices to recover from the current level as production from both Malaysia and Indonesia towards 4Q22 may not be as great as market’s expectation. “Thus, end-2022 inventory may not be at a burdensome level yet.

“However, there are no near-term catalysts for plantation share price performance, with the exception of IOI Corp Bhd and Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, for which we expect their financial performance to outperform peers’ and be supportive to share price performance,” said UOBKH Research.

On the first half of 2022 (1H22) results for plantation companies under its coverage, the research firm said: “They were mostly within our expectations, with companies’ earnings coming in higher year-on-year for 1H22, thanks to high CPO prices.

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